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Remnants from E PAC storms are forecast to move into SW Gulf by Friday and have a slight chance of redeveloping there. Rain likely going up in S TX and coastal TX either way.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 609 (Milton), US Major: 609 (Milton), FL Any: 609 (Milton), FL Major: 609 (Milton)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2676
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Western Caribbean Area
      Fri Jun 22 2007 10:38 AM

I guess I sure am glad to say that I qualified my assessment last night to require another five or six hours of development of either or both features before they were worthy of an Invest tag. From the looks of the loops this morning, just about no sooner had I hit enter on my posts, than did the convection of the Caribbean system start dissolve, and the convection of the Florida coast low get blown on out to sea with the high winds it finds itself in. Plus, it has a serious problem with dry, stable air pushing in from the north.

Few things of note, and perhaps anyone would like to offer a different perspective. I agree with others who have already pointed out that the western Caribbean disturbance has probably been pulled something a little north of west (rather than the much-advertised due westward movement) with significant rotation in the low to mid levels noted on the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua, with convection attempting to flare back up generally within that obvious rotation.

With regards to the low east of Florida, most analysis puts the center of the low further east of where it was, and well-east of where it would have been had it been simply drifting south. This location suggests that the convection which flared mightily overnight did in fact flare up along the eastern semicircle, tried to hang on for dear life, got blown away, but at first light today it looks like more convection keeps attempting to flare back up on the outer reaches of the llc. Unless upper level winds relax, it looks like Dem5 has called its demise about right, and these flareups will represent not much more, if nothing more, than a last gasp before this thing can be chalked up to having gone through the shredder.

Not much else out there. A new flare up north of the Antilles, perhaps. The overall environment, while seemingly a tiny bit better, perhaps - specifically, the moisture content looks a little improved here or there and water temps are up a little - is still unfavorable. The 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies are speaking volumes.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Western Caribbean... MikeCAdministrator Fri Jun 22 2007 10:38 AM
. * * Re: SAL Dust in Carb. Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 27 2007 05:27 PM
. * * SAL Dust in Carb. Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 26 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Incoming Tropical Moisture crpeavley   Tue Jun 26 2007 08:47 AM
. * * Saturday morning danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2007 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... scottsvb   Fri Jun 22 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2007 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... scottsvb   Fri Jun 22 2007 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Fri Jun 22 2007 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area allan   Fri Jun 22 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area dem05   Fri Jun 22 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area dem05   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Thu Jun 21 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area Lamar-Plant City   Thu Jun 21 2007 06:05 PM
. * * Western Caribbean Area danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 20 2007 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links ltpat228   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:13 PM
. * * new entry HanKFranK   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Satellite Links danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 20 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Jun 17 2007 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... scottsvb   Sat Jun 16 2007 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Sat Jun 16 2007 11:38 AM
. * * blockiness abounds HanKFranK   Sat Jun 16 2007 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Jun 16 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... GuppieGrouper   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 15 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... LoisCane   Fri Jun 15 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... cieldumort   Fri Jun 15 2007 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Hurricane29   Fri Jun 15 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 15 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Ricreig   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... audienceofone   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Just Some Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 15 2007 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... cieldumort   Fri Jun 15 2007 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... dem05   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... dem05   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_wx_watcher   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:13 PM

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