some of y'all have posted excerpts from forecasts indicating that the overall pattern might soon shift over to active with an eastward moving mjo wave. all i can say is that some of the signals i usually look for to expect things to happen are there... the soi index in the pacific has tipped strongly negative, which is usually associated with strong retrogressive motion in the tropical pacific. the pacific has been really quiet lately... i.e. they didn't get a named storm to form this june anywhere in the pacific ocean. when the bay of bengal and arabian sea are setting the pace for global tropical cyclone activity you know things are in weirdsville. from the looks of things the kind of synoptic scale anomalies that favor tropical cyclones coughing up are about to come together and possibly make july twitch to life. the good news about july is that tropical systems usually don't have the intensity they tend to accumulate later in the season.. the downside would be that they tend to be slow and rainy. most places in the southeast could use a good drenching (with emphasis on the d4 drought in north alabama), but over in, say, the texas hill country or the edge of the prairies out there, a tropical storm is not in order. for now the models aren't really showing much of anything. that won't mean a whole lot when/if mjo starts up. HF 2015z30june
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