Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 76 (Nicholas) , Major: 92 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1146 (Michael) Major: 1146 (Michael)

Archives 2000s >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

Weather Guru

Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Jeff Masters-Major steering current shift
      Fri Jul 13 2007 03:05 PM

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. However, there is there a major development to report--it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure (Figure 1). This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season. I'll have an updated forecast on this pattern shift Monday, when I issue my bi-weekly hurricane outlook.

Complete Blog Here

(Thread moved to a more appropriate forum. As noted in the post, forecasting major shifts in long wave patterns and their duration is a highly speculative endeavor.))

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jeff Masters-Major steering current shift Hurricane29 Fri Jul 13 2007 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Jeff Masters-Major steering current shift allan   Fri Jul 13 2007 04:20 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Thread views: 4746

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center