Some of the usual speculation on the various tropical waves that are crossing the pond, but they are all entrenched in the ITCZ - and the ITCZ itself is still too far to the south. Although the MJO has shifted positive, it takes changes in other parameters before a TD can boil up. Scottsvb's analysis on the Main Page article seems realistic - nothing of consequence for awhile yet. When any model generates something within the ITCZ itself, I tend to ignore it. The current waves are staying well south and seem to be stuck on a track that takes them into northern South America. If you want to watch a long shot, I'd monitor the wave at 15N 3W (at 14/18Z) over western Africa - it should move off the west African coast at a slightly higher latitude in a few days. Cheers, ED
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