1. SUSPECT AREA. FLIGHT ONE A. 22/1800Z B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST C. 22/1300Z D. 32.0N 64.0W
FLIGHT TWO A. 23/0600Z B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE C. 23/0100Z D. 35.0N 64.5W
IMHO, as of this morning there is almost -nothing- there. Looking at 32N 64W the ULL in the region is still far too intense to allow anything at the surface to get going at those coordinates(LINK) . Also, surface pressures there are running a bit high. Additionally, the best low level convergence (LINK) , and indeed even the most impressive 850 mb vorticity -by far- has actually been centered well to the south of there for some time (LINK) .
For this "invest" to come together at that predetermined location by this time Sunday, I suspect that the ULL would need to really pull out of the way and/or weaken a good bit more. Neither appears to be happening at this time. For now, my attention remains focused -just barely- on or about 25N 64W.
Perhaps for a long-shot Invest, 13N 78W. Weak low to mid level cyclonic turning now evident in an already low shear and moist environment. Would probably still run into central America and/or cross in to the east Pac, regardless.
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