dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: GOM Low?
Mon Jul 30 2007 12:41 AM
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Beyond my last post earlier on Sunday, I have been keeping an eye out there. You are pretty much correct. At the surface, a high pressure ridge (centered around Louisianna) is bringing westerly winds across the nothern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Not so good for providing immediate tropical development in the Gulf from an area such as the one that was lurcking aroud today. Easterly winds in the Northern Gulf may have made a different case. In the mean time, many people saw some vorticiy out there, that was definately NOT at the surface and was more indicitave of a mid level low attempting to spin up. In the upper levels, winds were blowing out of the north and north north east as could be seen in the thunderstorm blow off across western Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf. Final nail in the coffin for any increased organization today was the abundance of outflow boundries from the thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf. Outflow boundries to some degree are not a bad thing for a developing system, as in the appropriate circumstances, they create lift that adds to additional thunderstorm development. However and for the most part in tropical development, you look for thunderstoms moving inward...today, there were large outflow boundries heading outward and the shear magnitude of these boundries probably limited the lifting action over the eastern Gulf and has squlched thunderstorm development this evening. There may have even been enough energy in some of these large boundries to disrupt that mid-levelvorticity that wasmore noticable earlier in the day...Not quite the right ingreedients for tropical development in the Gulf just yet, but some levelof thunderstormactivity has waxwd and wanned out there for about a week now. Being an "old salt" to GoMex weather, it is wiser to keep at least a half of one eye on the Gulf throught the week, something may still pop up out there...For now, this current feature looks pretty beaten up...
...Rest of the Basin: 98L pretty much looks like something that wanted to walk the talk, but didn't in the end. I give it less than a 10% shot now. In the end, timing is everything, and it was looking like a "lopsided" by this afternoon and it is fairly apparent that the upper trough was a bit too close to let this domuch more.
As fot the ITCZ...Nothing to write home about there either. Some interesting kinks affliliated with tropical waves are out there, but everything along the ITCZ looks too continuous (from Africa on Westward). Also, the ITCZ seems pretty flat in it's east to west orientation (kinks included). There are no definative systems there right now. Enjoy the break gang...things will probably kick up sometimesoon soon, so the down time is a great thing!
Edited by dem05 (Mon Jul 30 2007 01:46 AM)
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