Tropical development in the N. Gulf this week?

Milling about the tropics and the various weather fields, my attention focused close to home last night (even despite the newly-christened Chantal). The northern Gulf coast over the next few days might just become the second area to follow for this week. Last week, the Paul Roundy genesis tools -- using no model forecasts! -- suggested the northern Gulf as a potential genesis region into later this week. Lo and behold, I think we might well have a shot of that verifying.

An old frontal boundary should slide into the northern Gulf waters in the next day or so while an upper ridge builds in over the Bahamas. Before this boundary tries to lift back north, there is an increasingly likely chance that an area of low pressure tries to form somewhere in the N. Gulf from south of Baton Rouge to south of Apalachicola. Model guidance is hinting at a broad area of lower pressures and, with the building ridge, upper level conditions should be at least moderately favorable for development. (And, as we all know, the waters of the N. Gulf are like bath water right now -- SSTs in the upper 80s in many areas.)

The part of the boundary east of Florida over the Gulf Stream may also try to spin up an area of low pressure, one that would likely scoot out NE as Chantal is doing, but the thermodynamic structure of any potential development there is more iffy than in the Gulf.

It's no slam dunk by any means, but watch close to home very carefully over the next few days. Any potential threat looks to be from the MS coast eastward toward the Florida Big Bend...but again, this is an uncertain forecast.

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