Atlantic Invest 99L Explodes into the EastPac

Well, things are really beginning to become quite active in the Eastern Pacific basin. As you would expect. After all, we're heading into the 'Dog Days of Summer', when *all* the northern hemisphere storm basins start jumping with interesting activity. All you good Atlantic basin folks who've been wave & model 'mongering' for months now will soon have more than your fair share of bona-fide storms to contend with.

After making an interesting transit across the Atlantic and the Caribbean, the once dubbed Invest 99L has made a week-end trip across Central America and Mexico, and has just emerged into the Eastern Pacific as a HUGE wave; certainly one of the largest I've seen so far this season.

Just take a look at ...

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

... and you can see the enormous area of ocean and gulf that is under the influence of this mammoth wave.

I can notice bands of convection in the SW GOM, from just south of the Texas/Mexico border, wrapping across the 'narrow' part of Mexico and then extending clockwise for hundreds of miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantapec.

And that's just the eastern portion of the wave. Closer to the center of it's vorticity (not too sure if it's developed a closed LLC center yet), one can surely notice the *massive* flare-up of very deep convection, with cloud tops to -80 and colder, with some convective turret penetrations to -90. Very impressive on the IR loop, as shown above.

NHC/TPC seems to feel, in it's tropical weather discusion, that there's too much NE shear and entrainment of dry air to make cyclogenesis very likely. However, they may change their tune in their next discussion, to reflect changing conditions.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL MEXICO TO 6N MOVE W 15 KT. CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG NE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

But then, in the same discussion, they mention ... "BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO (and) COVERS EPAC E OF 120W." ... so, with the large upper-level anti-cyclone firmly in place at the moment, as evidenced by it's animated satellite signature, it doesn't seem too far out-of-the-question to see a depression form from this wave, and sooner rather than later, judging by it's appearance. We'll see if the trends continue with the coming light of the new day.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of ex-Invest 99L developing in the EastPac ??

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

News

⚠ Current Storms

Communication

Storm Data

Content

Follow & Connect