MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Two Things to Watch and Flossie
Sat Aug 11 2007 02:03 PM
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9AM 13 Aug 2007 Update
Indications from Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that 90l may now be a tropical depression, advisories may start as early as 11AM EDT.
5:20PM EDT Update
The wave off Africa has been designated invest 90, and is being tracked by the NRL as such. Model runs have began on it, and I'm not liking what I see. Westward ho--for a good while, 90 L will likely be this year's first long track Cape Verde system. (really the first since Ivan in 2004--this does NOT mean I think it will take a track like Ivan, however)
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave off Africa (90L) In Next 3 days (Updated 9AM 12 Aug - TCFA Issued)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-----]
It has the potential, if it persists, to become a depression over the next few days. The stronger it gets further east out in the Atlantic, the more likely it will recurve away from the Caribbean and potentially out to sea. Conversely, and more likely, the weaker it remains longer, the more likely it will continue a westward track.
As mentioned, this is the first potential Cape Verde storm of the season, and it should be a reminder to those in the Caribbean to be prepared. Even though we have a good number of days to watch 90L.
Remember it takes a few days for models to get a handle on newly formed systems, and data out in the Central and Eastern Atlantic for upper level winds isn't all that great. Many waves off Africa die down a bit after the initial phase, so it is possible the system will lose it, and hopefully it will. However conditions are good enough to hold it together for the foreseeable future.
Those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch for it by next late next week into the weekend (16-18th) , there is a decent chance a storm will be near or over there at that time. As such soon thereafter others in the Caribbean may need to watch.
For those along the east coast of the US, i'd watch it, if would be just about a week and a half out (21st) for it to get anywhere close to us, assuming it doesn't fall apart or curve out to sea before then.
Now for the realm of speculation, based on models...
What we don't want is the scenario given by some of the super long range models, The long range GFS earlier today had the system heading toward South Florida (Also EMCWF), and later into the Gulf near Houston, ( See this and This)
I'm sure it'll be back somewhere else at the next runs around midnight. What does this mean? Nothing--models at that range are about the same as throwing a dart from a moving car on a dirt road, but it's another sign that the season is about to get active and that we must watch. Average error for models at that range is over 1000 (a thousand) miles.
Intensity wise, the first GFDL run on the system takes it to Hurricane strength by the time it gets to 40 degrees west. (Currently it is at 20 degrees West), the HRWF model brings it to a Category 3 hurricane before reaching the Caribbean.
It's more important for East Coast and Gulf Coast folks, just wait to see model trends, and do not take any one run of the long range models to heart right now. I certainly don't think much of them beyond Wednesday or so as worth anything,.
With that said, we'll definitely be watching it, and it's a good idea to check back during the week to see the updates with this system, especially if it develops into a named Storm. The next name up on the list is Dean. There are other indications that other storms may follow this one as well, which is not too uncommon for mid to late August.
Not to forget the West Caribbean System, it's closer to land and still not really moving much, it still needs to be watches as well, but it is less likely to develop.
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance in Western Caribbean
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----*--------------]
Original Update
After a lull week, the system in the West Caribbean is still rather unorganized, but will have to be watched. It's near Jamaica at the moment and nearing Cuba and the Cayman Islands, mainly causing rain in the area. The system is still moving westward and will have to be watched a bit longer, but development chances are still pretty low.
The system in the Eastern Atlantic, that has recently come off Africa, is moving west, and has a long track west and will have to be watched. If it persists it could develop over the next several days, it's moving westward right now.
In the Pacific, Hurricane Flossie, crossing from the eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin into the Central Hurricane Basin, has the potential to affect Hawaii, and in such a case, would begin to be discussed here more. RIght now Hurricane Flossie's windspeed is around 130MPH. It's likely to weaken as it moves a bit westward, and the current forecast rack moves it south of Hawaiian Islands, however they are still within the cone of error. Flossie is moving out of the basin covered by the National Hurricane Center, and is now entering the area covered by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
More discussion on Flossie can be found Here, in this topic.
Event Related Links
Central Pacific Hurricane Flossie
Hurricane Flossie Maps/Advisories
{{CPHC}}
West Caribbean System
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|4|2007|1|90L (Far Eastern Atlantic System)}}
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