There seems to be an emerging consensus on the expansion of the upper Level ridge over the southern plains eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. The ECMWF 500 mb pattern from days 7 through 10 shows this development. If this pattern holds, the US east coast could be spared from soon to be tropical cyclone Dean. Of course, that means FL, the Greater Antilles, Yucatan, and GOM may be in the projected path of this system down the road.
From 8/12 morning HPC Disc:
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE AND CORE OF THE HOT AIR MASS REMAINING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND DRIFTING EAST DAYS SIX/SEVEN. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT ON THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TWO MERGING INTO ONE LARGE/ELONGATED RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY SEVEN. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE ON THE LEVEL OF DETAIL SO A CONSENSUS SHOULD SUFFICE.
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