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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 270 (Idalia) , Major: 270 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 270 (Idalia) Major: 270 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: Dean
Wed Aug 15 2007 03:42 AM

Many thanks to Mike with the help on mirroring the images. I hope they are of some use to you guys, being more complete than the SFWMD images (and a bit better looking, I think). The full set of images can always be found at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ -- including GFS Ensemble model tracks and a "quick look" image showing what is being plotted.

With respect to the tropics...
The structure of Dean, as illustrated by QuikSCAT, is such that as it moves into a region of weaker easterly shear, better thermodynamics (away from all of that stable air near the Cape Verdes), and warmer SSTs, it has a chance to develop at a decent rate. Look for this to happen starting sometime tomorrow -- probably afternoon into evening.

Not a whole lot to change with respect to the forecast reasoning or intensity right now. The NHC track and intensity both look reasonable at this time. From there, it's still largely a crapshoot, but a major hurricane is likely to be somewhere in Hebert's box before the 5 day period is out.

And TD 5? For some reason, I'm getting Dean flashbacks in my mind...except from the 1995 version rather than the 2007 version. What that means is a weak to moderate storm making landfall on the Texas coastline a day or two after it developed with rainfall as its most significant effect. The NHC intensity and track look good, though there's an outside chance at more intensification than anticipated depending upon how much the shear relaxes. The warmest (and deepest) waters of the Gulf are further east, so don't expect a bonanza out of this one.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	MikeC	Wed Aug 15 2007 03:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	sharkman	Thu Aug 16 2007 12:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 15 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Thunderbird12	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:40 PM
Re: forward speed	allan	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Ricreig	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	native	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Beaumont, TX	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:37 PM
forward speed	SeaMule	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	h2ocean	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	LisaC	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	stevie	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	madmumbler	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	Hugh	Wed Aug 15 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	WeatherNLU	Wed Aug 15 2007 10:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	WeatherNLU	Wed Aug 15 2007 10:11 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf	cieldumort	Wed Aug 15 2007 08:41 AM
Re: Dean	Clark	Wed Aug 15 2007 03:42 AM
Re: Dean	MikeC	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:55 AM
Re: Dean	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:50 AM
Re: Dean	Rabbit	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:47 AM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:44 AM
Re: Dean	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:32 AM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:28 AM
Re: Dean	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Dean	cieldumort	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:10 AM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 02:04 AM
Re: coupla things	wxman007	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:59 AM
Re: coupla things	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:51 AM
Re: coupla things	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:47 AM
Re: coupla things	twizted sizter	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:42 AM
Re: Dean	WeatherNLU	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:41 AM
Re: coupla things	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:41 AM
Dean	Thunderbird12	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:38 AM
Re: coupla things	Old Sailor	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:32 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:15 AM
Re: coupla things	Fla. native in Ala.	Wed Aug 15 2007 01:13 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:52 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:42 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	OUSHAWN	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:39 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Hugh	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:39 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:28 AM
Re: Preparedness	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:24 AM
Re: Preparedness	MikeC	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:21 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Hugh	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:14 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:09 AM
Re: Preparedness	tweather	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:07 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:06 AM
Re: The Hebert Box	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 15 2007 12:00 AM
Preparedness	wxman007	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:50 PM
Re: coupla things	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Beaumont, TX	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:40 PM
The Hebert Box	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:28 PM
Re: coupla things	madmumbler	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:20 PM
Re: coupla things	Hugh	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:17 PM
Re: coupla things	richisurfs	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:17 PM
Re: coupla things	madmumbler	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:13 PM
Re: coupla things	StrmTrckrMiami	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:13 PM
Re: coupla things	Hugh	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:09 PM
Re: coupla things	StrmTrckrMiami	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:08 PM
Re: coupla things	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:05 PM
Re: coupla things	StrmTrckrMiami	Tue Aug 14 2007 11:04 PM
Re: coupla things	Valandil	Tue Aug 14 2007 10:57 PM
Re: coupla things	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 10:53 PM
Re: coupla things	StrmTrckrMiami	Tue Aug 14 2007 10:46 PM
coupla things	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 14 2007 10:35 PM
91L	Rich B	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:08 PM
Re: Dean	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:04 PM
Re: Dean	stormchazer	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:00 PM
Re: Dean	allan	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:42 PM
Re: Dean	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:38 PM
Re: Dean	stormchazer	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:34 PM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:31 PM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:25 PM
Re: Dean	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:07 PM
Re: Dean	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 14 2007 08:00 PM
Re: Dean	Valandil	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:56 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:51 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:43 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:34 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:26 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	ElizabethH	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:19 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:14 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:10 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:05 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	allan	Tue Aug 14 2007 07:03 PM
Re: Get ready for #5...	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:57 PM
Get ready for #5...	Clark	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:49 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	Clark	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:48 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	AdvAutoBob	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:32 PM
Re: Hey Hull...	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:24 PM
Re: Hey Hull...	javlin	Tue Aug 14 2007 06:06 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	native	Tue Aug 14 2007 05:54 PM
Re: Hey Hull...	Kissimmee	Tue Aug 14 2007 05:46 PM
91L and recon	Rich B	Tue Aug 14 2007 05:44 PM
Re: Dean and model tracks...	AdvAutoBob	Tue Aug 14 2007 05:28 PM
Re: Hey Hull...	javlin	Tue Aug 14 2007 05:02 PM
Hey Hull...	Steve	Tue Aug 14 2007 04:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	scottsvb	Tue Aug 14 2007 04:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 03:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Steve H1	Tue Aug 14 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 03:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	LisaC	Tue Aug 14 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 03:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	LisaC	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	hullphoto	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Rabbit	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Beaumont, TX	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also	allan	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:01 PM

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