I think it is important to remember that the atmosphere around these storms are very complex. And we don't totally understand every factor that affects the steering of a hurricane. And if that wasn't enough these factors are constantly changing, Models have greatly improved the track of hurricanes over time but I think the general rule applies that it's better to just stay tuned to the NHC. Having said all that I believe we will have a better feel for where Dean is going once they are able to fly the NOAA P-3's into the storm and feed the info gathered into the models.
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