that small low that wandered up to the bahamas mid week is now east of north florida, very weak, but present. there's finally a bit of convection on it, but of course this is one of those too little/too late things. since there's nothing else to watch.... gfs has returned to its conspicuous silence. it's been pretty good at bird-dogging systems that did exist and ignoring ones that never turned up this year, so the fact that it sees nothing carries weight. the fact that it's going through two weeks leading up to the peak of the season and nothing is showing up is VERY conspicuous. stuff like that is possible, but it's incredibly rare to go through the last week of august and first of september with nothing happening. hard to expect reality to follow what the models have. HF 1107z24august
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