cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
Tue Aug 28 2007 04:11 PM
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Things are starting to get perky again. Obviously 94L is at the forefront of most discussions, as well it should - it has the benefits of a respectable low level cyclonic turning, favorable latitude, some convection already present... and time. 93L probably ran out of time (ocean) before it could get officially logged into 2007.
Also worth noting, the surface wave and associated mid-level low which is crossing through and just north of Nicaragua today. It appears that the mid-level circulation is not running amok inland, and that if anything, there has been some slight pull more to the northwest, than due west over the last 18 hours or so, which appears to have allowed some subtle curved banding to develop today, most evident near 17N 85W, and to either side of that down to about 15N, and with some inflow from the SE all the way down to 10N. Despite being so close to and/or partially overland, just a little more development here could warrant an invest tag, as well.
One final note, there appears to be a good bit of SAL mixing in from east of about 55W and extending all the way from the ITCZ to roughly 20N (even beyond this, but that seems to be containing the especially healthy amounts of it). Could act to hold back 94L a bit longer. If 94L stays too weak and too far south it will clearly run itself into South America with no further development in this basin.
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