cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: The Second Half
Wed Aug 29 2007 01:29 AM
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Thought I would get around to sticking my toe in the water, now that it's warmed up a little bit, perhaps just enough to get a clearer picture as we head into and over that mind-bubbling mid-point 
I expect to see the ongoing Saharan Air Layer (SAL) intrusions of recent seasons to continue this year, although perhaps with diminishing effect on system development for the remainder of the season - a combination of the other players coming together better, and perhaps more specifically less dry air, overall -
Not sure what to make of the stubbornly intense Azores ridge, other than I suspect that it simply has to start to give at some point, and allow for some healthier wave action.
Fronts this year have had a tendency to drop quite a bit further south than normal, and while I expect this to continue, I also anticipate several more cold core to warm core transitions before the season is up, with perhaps one or two named systems during the months of November & December (more likely November than December).
For the remainder of 2007, I'll go with: 9 more named storms, 5 more hurricanes, 3 more majors, bringing the 2007 total to 14 named, 6 hurricanes, 4 major, plus anything that might just get added posthumously during reanalysis, of which I currently have four potential candidates in mind - with two of these four standing out above the other two.
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