Well looking at data and sat obs 94L has the best chance of any. It does have a LLC and winds are 25-30kt with higher gusts.. the shower activity is also close to the center. Dry air is inhibiting more development but if T-Storm activity picks up tonight...recon will go in tomorrow and find a Tropical Storm.. but lets see what tonight brings first. 50%
96L just doesnt have the mid-circulation and LLC together..plus its running into a front....I think it will be a Baroclincal low as the midlevel takes over and strengthens while the LLC merges with the front. So no development here. 20%
97L doesnt have a closed circulation and is running into MX before any development will take place 20%
95L weakening elongated trough and a weak llc... 10%
Pretty much high pressures and dry air continues this year. Probably be around labor day before we get a good storm to come off Africa....94L has the only near term shot.
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