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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii

Enter Felix, Stage Right
Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM

Good Morning All. TD-6 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Felix at the 5am advisory.

The convection continues to expand with continuing organization of the feeder bands, several of which are now in evidence in the western semi-circle, with more beginning to take shape in the S and SE quads.

Also, the deep convection has maintained very cold cloud top temps of -70 to -80, all the while continuing to organize better, implying that gradual intensification is underway. And upper level outflow is quite good and only improving.

From NHC's 5am discussion:

"THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION ... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT ... SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX."

Moving a little faster now, it seems that Felix is destined to be, like Dean, a 'Straight Shooter' type system, with high confidence in taking it directly towards Central America, with a possible landfall in Belize nearing Cat 3 strength.

Shear is expected to remain low, so an even stronger hurricane wouldn't be out of the question by the end of the forecast period. Remember that mid and long range *intensity forecasts* have a much greater degree of error than do those regarding location, and all factors appear to be favorable, certainly not inhibitive.

All in all, it would appear that Felix could become a quite 'respectable' Caribbean Hurricane, which fortunately, should not effect US interests.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
down deep	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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