MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean
Sat Sep 01 2007 07:49 AM
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7:45 PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Hurricane Felix has formed in the southeastern Caribbean. Recon found the storm's center slightly south of the 5PM position, so the further west track continues. Those in Aruba should take note of that. Beyond that, Honduras.
7:40 PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Aircraft recon just reported a 993mb pressure in Felix, it's extremely likely it will be a hurricane at the 8PM advisory.
7PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Felix is now just shy of hurricane strength right now, and may become a hurricane later tonight as it moves westward. In fact Recon just found 66knot surface winds, which puts it over hurricane threshold, so Hurricane Felix may be recognized as early as 8PM.
Model initializations have been a bit off, but it still looks like the National Hurricane Center's forecast track will hold. The thinking here still takes it south, with Honduras coming precariously close.
We'll be watching.
1PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Despite proximity to South America, Felix has strengthening during the day and could become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow.
Once it clears the tip of South America, conditions are favorable for Felix to become a major hurricane. Which, the National Hurricane Center forecasts it to do. It will pass close enough to the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba to potentially bring tropical Storm Force winds to those islands.
Beyond that depending on trends, those in Northern coastal Nicaragua and Honduras need to watch it around Tuesday, as the forecast track takes it very close offshore north to there, and beyond that Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico around Wednesday or Thursday.
98L, in the Central Atlantic, slightly north of and mostly east of Felix, is persisting quite well and is on track to become a depression within the next few days. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean, on the north side, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will want to keep an eye out on 98L. This one is a bit further north, long range, it has more potential to affect the US than the other systems, but still plenty of time to watch trends on that one.
Chances for Tropical Development of Central Atlantic Wave off Africa (98L) In Next 3 days
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*-------]
It has the potential, if it persists, to become the season's 7th classified tropical system sometime over the holiday weekend.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Felix has formed from Tropical Depression Six in the southeastern Caribbean, it's moving generally west, and is looking a little ragged, perhaps due to the proximity to South America. It will move westward and pass just north of the Netherlands Antilles including Aruba as it moves to the west.
Close enough for Tropical Storm Warnings to be issued for those islands and parts of the Northern Venezuelan coastline.
It's not expected to strengthen all that much today, but may later on as it moves further away from South America.
The hurricane center's track is again, pretty straightforward, at least for the next 3 or four days. Mostly west, or slightly north of due west, making it possible to clip Nicaragua and Honduras--but staying just north---and eventually head more west into Belize. There are no signs of a potential north turn, in fact if anything it may stay further south. This is due to a high in the Gulf of Mexico that will strengthen the ridging in the area driving the storm even further west. The hurricane center's forecast track is to the south of some models however. The hurricane center's forecast track looks pretty good.
We'll be watching, though, some models have trended more north, but these models are already too far north for the current position of the system.
Beyond Felix a wave further east in the Atlantic, being referred to as 98L will have to be watched over the coming days.
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Felix|06|6|2007|1|Tropical Storm Felix}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|7|2007|2|98L (East Atlantic Wave)}}
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