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Cat 3 Ian likely to intensify further *into* landfall. Major flooding/surge has begun w/Key West hitting 3rd all time high still rising
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Fiona) , Major: 394 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1448 (Michael) Major: 1448 (Michael)
25.2N 83.0W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 953mb
Moving:
Nne at 10 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Felix and More
      Mon Sep 03 2007 11:11 AM

Update - Monday, 11:30PM EDT
Hurricane Felix on schedule for landfall in northern Nicaragua at about 12Z - probably as a borderline Cat III/IV hurricane. I suspect that the remnants of this small-core storm will die out in the high terrain of Guatemala.

Invest 98L no longer an item of interest - but it could begin to regenerate in a day or two in the central tropical Atlantic. Strong easterly shear (both surface and aloft) has dominated western Africa for about the last 3 or 4 weeks - don't expect anything out of that region until the environment changes.

A weak low pressure system continues to churn east of Florida - about 280 miles east northeast of Melbourne. The system has been slowly drifting to the east southeast over the past couple of days and it has been designated as Invest 99L. Wind shear is currently light (and so are the steering currents) but the shear is expected to increase above 29N by Wednesday.

Models are all over the place with this embryonic system. The UKMET and a couple of others have been consistent in slowly developing and moving this system in an anticyclonic loop - eventually bringing the system, as a tropical storm, across the Florida peninsula. Other models meander the system eastward in an erratic fashion, while still others take it off to the north or northeast - but into the teeth of some increasing shear. Although the system is not that far away, any movement will be slow - and development is far from certain at this time.

Invest 99L East of Florida

Here is a closeup IR view courtesy of MSFC:

MSFC View of Invest 99L

I think that we'll all keep a close eye on this one during the week.
ED

11:53 AM EDT Update 3 September 2007
Felix seems to be gaining a secondary eyewall, so reorganization or eyewall replacement may be starting once.the secondary eyewall has completely formed This process can take several hours to a day or so to complete.

Original Update
Hurricane Felix doesn't look as good on Satellite this morning as it appears to have bit of some dry air entering along the north or it's going through some reorganization now. It still remains a Category 5 Hurricane. Because of the current look I expect it to weaken a bit, still to a category 4 storm. Hopefully this would continue to weaken it more, but the dynamics around it will probably keep Felix a Category 4 or 5 system. The hurricane center is forecasting it to get a little stronger before landfall, in fact.

The current forecast track has moved a little south, now aiming for the border between Nicaragua and Honduras, that along with the rather fast forward motion of 21mph makes it necessary for both of those countries to issue Hurricane Warnings, which has been done.

Current model trends suggest that Felix may not make it into the Bay of Campeche, which will make it spin itself out, and get torn up over the mountains of the middle of Central America and Mexico.



The system off Georgia hasn't changed all that much, it's there, but pressures haven't lowered all that much. We'll continue to watch it.

98L Is holding together, and may still yet become a depression over the next few days.



More to come later...
Radio
Radio Belize
Love FM - Belize
Power FM - Honduras (Spanish)

Television:
Canal 6 Honduras

Webcams
Cocoa Resort, Roatan, Honduras (Island north of the coast of Honduras) - Dock Cam - (Flhurricane Recording of this Cam)
Cocoa Resort, Roatan, Honduras - Water Cam - (Flhurricane Recording of this Cam)
Utila Lodge Dive Report - Utila, Honduras (North Coastline) - Dock Cam - (Flhurricane Recording of this Cam)
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wimington, NC}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Felix|06|6|2007|1|Felix}}

{{StormLinks|99L|99|8|2007|3|99L (Area off Georgia)}}

{{StormLinks|98L|98|7|2007|2|98L (East Atlantic Wave)}}

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Felix and More MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 03 2007 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Landfall ShanaTX   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Landfall charlottefl   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:53 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:20 PM
. * * felix in, 98 out, 99 in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? TheWXMan   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:09 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? CarolinaGurl   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:01 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Last night's recon abort Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:27 PM
. * * Last night's recon abort weather999   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:26 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? oil tracker   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More nicaragua   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Lysis   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:55 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:30 PM
. * * so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Felix Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:59 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More HCW   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:28 PM

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