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vpbob21
Weather Guru


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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Fitow, Henriette and Felix
      Wed Sep 05 2007 10:37 AM

Just a few thoughts on our Pacific systems ...

Other than its rather unusual track across the Pacific, Typhoon Fitow has been somewhat of a yawner (not that there's anything wrong with that!). It started out about a week ago looking like it was really going to take off, but it ingested a bunch of dry air and that pretty much choked off its development ... convection just hasn't been able to tighten up around the center and it has just been puttering along at cat 1 / low cat 2 intensity. It's expected to make landfall in Japan probably 80-100 miles west of Tokyo in about 24 hours. Official JTWC forecast suggests it could strengthen to a cat 2 storm, so Tokyo figures to get a rough stretch of weather, but probably nothing too destructive.

Closer to the U.S. Hurricane Henriette is about to make landfall on the Mexican coast in a few hours after grazing the southern tip of Baja California yesterday. It was expected to weaken to a tropical storm but the track moved farther right than expected and it spent less time over land. Looking pretty good on satellite this morning with lots of deep convection firing near the center. Main threat appears to be very heavy rains, some of which will likely move northward into the Southwest U.S.

And then we've got the remnants of Felix that have made it a good way across Central America. Final NHC discussion didn't think what's left of it would reach the Pacific, but I'm not so sure. Looking at satellite it appears eastern Guatemala has really been taking a pounding by continuous training thunderstorms, and I fear there could be some deadly mudslides in that area.

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* Soon-to-be Hurricane Henriette; TD Gil Spinning Down CoconutCandy Wed Sep 05 2007 10:37 AM
. * * Fitow, Henriette and Felix vpbob21   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:37 AM

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