99L is looking a lot better today, and I think that recon may find a tropical depression. This is based on the system being nonfrontal as the front has dissapated, so we should see a warmer core. This system may threaten north carolina.
A greater concern for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico might be the area of convection currently off florida's west coast and in the eastern gulf of mexico. This area is associated with a vigorous tropical wave that is migrating across the gulf. I am not familiar with the current shear profiles over the southern gulf, but I would expect perhaps a niche to form between a sheared trough to the north and shear to the west. Now if shear does lessen, I would expect the potential for rapid development and intensification. Convection is already concentrated and the system looks fairly organized. Though a tropical wave, it bears very close watching by all interests in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. If shear lessens a tropical storm is possible
What opinions do others have regarding the status of the gulf of mexico tropical wave?.
Edited by TampaBayHurricaneChaser (Fri Sep 07 2007 03:27 PM)
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