cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
Re: GOM System
Tue Sep 25 2007 01:35 AM
|
|
|
It appears that a part of these forecasts for apparent drifting may also just be in response to the increasing likelihood that, however well-formed 94L appeared on conventional satellite yesterday, is actually far less well-developed at the surface, just yet. A scat pass at 2332Z exposed that the supposed main surface low probably pretty much opened up last night, and, in conjunction with recent convective trends and area obs, makes a case that "94L" may yet play out much differently than models are anticipating.
I suspect other possibilities now exposed may include:
1) the trof to the southeast of the original LLCs location may become dominant.
2) the trof to the southeast of the original LLCs location may merely act as a continued inhibitor to significant organization of that LLC (by way of robbing deep convection, preventing it from closing off again, etc.)
3) the mid-level vortice left in the wake of the deepest convection that was along the northeast quad of 94s LLC Monday appears to have also been attempting to take over.
So, in addition to weak and conflicting steering currents, it does look like 94L may even reform at an entirely different location, although this would still be in the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM, generally.
As such, I think it's entirely too early to call any future forecast tracks with any degree of confidence, because we may not even be locking on to the right initial location yet.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
