I have been talking with people on Wunderground and we are all in agreement that we may have something developing just south of the Bahamas. On the latest loops, you can clearly see what appears to be either a low level or mid-level circulation forming in this area. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in this area all day long, so it will have to be monitored for tropical development. This could be the system developed by the CMC.
I also wanted to comment on Karen. Despite the current projected path, I do not believe that we will see a curvature of Karen out to sea. It appears from the latest models and steering patterns that the high may be getting stronger that originally thought and that the troughs will be weaker. This is a scary premonition and will need to be watched. The latest UKMET, GFS, and now even GFDL models all show a more westerly movement than in the previous runs. Noone should let their guard down on any of these systems out there, but in my opinion, 94L poses the least threat to the United States.
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