PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 929 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 06 2007 - 12Z TUE OCT 09 2007
EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN A REPETITIVE MODE..WITH THE FUTURE LOOKING A LOT LIKE THE PAST.
THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SHOULD DIRECT ANY SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FIRST WEAK SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD REACH OR APPROACH THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY DAY 3/FRI AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A TRACK WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN VERIFICATION OF RECENT WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN ATLC. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE GULF BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1157 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007
POSSIBLE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... THE NAM DEVELOPS A FEATURE HERE WHICH WAS NOT SEEN ON ITS RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. IT WAS FIRST NOTED ON THE NAM RUN FROM 00Z...FROM WHICH THE CURRENT RUN HAS TRENDED SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.
POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING... THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE
0 registered and 12 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 52903
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center