The feature HF and Allan have both now referred to is clearly "getting there" - it's a little surprising that an Invest tag isn't already up on this one. Up until this morning it appeared to be in the process of establishing a cold front, but since then it has taken on much less of a frontal appearance, and more of a classic symmetrical one. Phase diagrams have suggested that by tomorrow it may have become at least marginally warm-cored. What it has in symmetry however, it still lacks in convection, especially near and within the center, so that forecast might be a little bullish, at least initially.
As far as its future is concerned, it now appears to be heading westward, and staying far-enough south to continue traveling over SSTs in the 23-24+ C range. In some ways it is a little like pre-Olga, but with more frontal beginnings. 12Z runs nearly unanimously send it WSW or SW and weaken it substantially by next Wednesday, while over 25-26C waters, but unsurprisingly the CMC pretty much makes it a tropical storm, and keeps it heading west over the 23-25C range.
TAFB only had this to say about it at 1PM today
A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/281750.shtml?
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: one last hybrid
Edit
Reply
Quote
