Quote: GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.
Persistant or consistant. The GFS has now been joined by the CMC (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro. Med Range Model). Looks like a train of models are onto something... repeat something.
Here is the last paragraph from today's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC . EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 211 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008
VALID 12Z WED MAY 28 2008 - 12Z SUN JUN 01 2008
...CMC/ECMWF/GFS ALL CONT THEIR PERSISTENT TREND TOWARDS TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR YUCATAN MID PERIOD AS MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH LOW WIND SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WEST CARRIBEAN. HPC POSITIONING IS A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATIONAL AND PRESSURE AVERAGE.
And From NWS Slidell,LA Sunday Afternoon AFD~time sensitive ...THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22
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