Latest Update... 30 minutes ago. It doesn't look good, to me, at this point in time.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7WW HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12 KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA...THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST SLIGHT ORGANIZATION CENTERED ON ROUGHLY 09N89W. THIS IS WHERE OUR MARINE PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BUT THEREAFTER SEVERAL CHANGES ARE FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... OR CUT OFF FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...AND DRIFT S FRI WHILE AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REPLACING THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DISSECTING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF OF HONDURAS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE NW THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET ALL OF THIS SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS.
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