Lamar, you bring up an interesting point about sst's being elevated under extended periods of high pressure influence and also that there are many variables. I think higher surface temperatures help explain intensification but not track. A storm won't track towards warmer water so much as being influenced by areas of pressure differential. I think dry Mays, in Florida or anywhere is a function of strong high pressure. In our case in Florida the ridge of high pressure that camps out in the middle of the Atlantic is very fluid and the western periphery dictates where and when storms turn Northward. Due to the coriolis effect storms are always trying to turn poleward. High pressure blocks this turn. Try and picture the atmosphere in 3D. High pressure areas are like mountains only inverted and low pressure areas are like valleys inverted, this is what allows cloud heights to build - lack of pressure. Hurricanes are deep holes, again inverted. Anyway systems will follow the path of least resistance and that happens to be the valleys. A dry May in Florida indicates a stronger ridge to the west which means less rain and a later turn for any storm in the vicinity, if the ridge doesn't migrate to the east. Last year we had strong high pressure through the whole season. Thats how I envision whats going on but, I've been wrong before. Bottom line is Lushine's discovery doesn't apply just to S. florida it applies to the whole Gulf of Mexico with less of a threat to the outer bank area. Even then timing is everthing or nothing.
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Re: Increased S. Florida Hurricane Risk? - May Precip. Totals
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