Wave mongering notwithstanding, we have a couple of incipient cyclones out there.
We now have 2 areas of investigation, with depressions likely to form from both.
94E is becoming much better organized and is no longer classified as an open wave.
From the most recent discussion from the Tropical Prediction Center:
Quote:
"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N104W...OR ABOUT 445 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW 15 KT.
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED WITH ONE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING W/NW OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE PAST 5 HRS.
(A much larger banding feature has developed in the NE quad since then.)
THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN REMOVED NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR."
So, if it's not a wave and it's not a depression (yet), then what is it? A 'disturbance'? A cyclonically rotating mesoscale convective complex? An area of investigation? All the above?
It certainly looks like a cyclone already, judging from an impressive passive microwave image taken not long ago. Have a peek, you'll see what I mean.
( See attachment provided )
Also, another invest has formed, 95E, and it too has a healthy broad circulation, with a couple low level circulations trying to consolidate. Looks like the LLC in the NE quad is the winner.
If both invests do go on to become cyclones, since they are so close together, I wonder if there will be a fujiwara effect come into play between them.
Alas, I getting a little ahead of myself. As Ed suggests, we'll all just have to take a "wait an see" attitude before we 'get too carried away'. I, for one, am not boarding my windows just yet.
But the main point I wanted to make in my first post was, now that the EastPac is percolating, it can't be too long before that tendency 'spills over' into the BOC, GOH or even the GOM. (Shooting from the hip here.)
I will soon post a follow-on to the Madden-Julian Oscillation 'Incoherence' issue in the Hurricane Ask/Tell forum, for those interested in persuing this phenomena in more detail.
Meanwhile, I heartedly suggest that this flare-up of activity in the EastPac may be of greater interest to more people than one may suspect, especially since the Atlantic basin is in snooze mode for the time being.
(Again, a reminder that the primary focus of CFHC is the Atlantic basin. If the EASTPAC Invests develop further, then this is the Forum to talk about them.)
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