Yet another unseasonably-impressive wave in the vicinity of 10N 35W tonight, with what may be the makings of a new LLCC embedded generally within a flare-up of some respectable convection. Furthermore, this development is centered within a much larger area of notable low to mid-level cyclonic turning, and within a reasonably moist airmass. Plus, the most recent QuikSCAT pass clearly showed the existence of a tight little surface circulation associated with this wave.
It has been one wave after another a few weeks now. Usually this time of year, these waves hit a serious wall of pain and suffering long before even having the chance to as much as glimmer the entrance into the eastern Caribbean, let alone survive that historic graveyard, but this one appears to be picking up some gradual latitude, all while traversing an environment less hostile than has been the case recently.
RAMSDIS has got a nice Floater up on it over here. (Loop). Regardless of its prospects, this one is something extra neat to watch as we note that since Arthur, the Atlantic basin has still been as quiet as it should be for so early in a season.
Looking ahead, some of the better longer-range model runs continue to hint at an actual CV-type system popping up almost right from the shooter, along about 120-180 hours out. Given the strength and frequency of the waves thus far, come early July this would be extremely rare, but not entirely without precedent; and time frame-wise, to have the Atlantic light up a week or two out from when the eastern east Pac does so, is a familiar-enough theme.
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics
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