With the MJO pulse in the atlantic, I find the 5 models that are in agreement with our first CV storm reasonable. Shear should relax and it's possible with all the time it has it could become a strong storm. the GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, and EURO show a weak TS in a few days traveling across the Atlantic, the track is uncertain but most models keep it as south as Dean (2007) and Ivan (2004). Also if the High keeps put and stays strong enough, a recurvature is less likely, but not impossible. It's just something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics
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