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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands
Fri Jul 04 2008 07:29 AM

CDO-like feature appears to have been given a little additional boost from some shear, perhaps. Deep convection now, with possibly a pull back to the north of the LLCC, after an initial adjustment to the north, which was only followed by a readjustment to the south after some impressive and fortuitous microwave passes came in.

Doing some quick back of the hand Dvorak sketching, I come up with T3.0 to T3.5 at this time, using a blend of shear, CDO and curved band methods. Covering the bases...

SAB just came back with 3.0 at 0545 UTC. It will be interesting to see what NHC does with the next advisory, but I suspect that whatever the next advisory comes in at might be tempered just a bit as the nocturnal maximum may have run its course.

A few ship reports that came in well outside of the coc and also outside of any deep convection were already running 20-33 knots. Wouldn't it be enlightening to have the benefit of a few center fixes right about now.

I suspect that Bertha might be worthy of at least a 55+/- MPH advisory coming up. Seems entirely plausible. It appears that Bertha is a little stronger, earlier, which adds yet more argument for her spinning off into never never land out at sea. However, its worth noting that recently GFS has been trending a little left.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	MikeC	Fri Jul 04 2008 07:29 AM
Hurricane Bertha	John C	Mon Jul 07 2008 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Mon Jul 07 2008 07:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LDH892	Mon Jul 07 2008 06:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Mon Jul 07 2008 01:30 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Random Chaos	Mon Jul 07 2008 01:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Mon Jul 07 2008 12:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LoisCane	Mon Jul 07 2008 12:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 10:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:02 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:49 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:44 PM
Bertha intensifying	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:33 PM
Re: Accuweather	Genesis	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:17 PM
Re: Accuweather	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Accuweather	LDH892	Sun Jul 06 2008 06:21 PM
Re: Accuweather	scottsvb	Sun Jul 06 2008 06:02 PM
Re: Accuweather	WeatherNut	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:57 PM
Accuweather	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:17 PM
Central Atlantic...Sunday	danielw	Sun Jul 06 2008 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	scottsvb	Sun Jul 06 2008 03:01 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:17 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	hurricaneguy	Sun Jul 06 2008 12:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 05 2008 08:59 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:41 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:32 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	flanewscameraman	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:21 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	craigm	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:04 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	DarleneCane	Sat Jul 05 2008 01:19 PM
Bertha... Status Quo?	danielw	Sat Jul 05 2008 01:41 AM
Re: Bertha strengthening?	LoisCane	Fri Jul 04 2008 11:54 PM
Bertha strengthening?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jul 04 2008 06:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Fri Jul 04 2008 07:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Fri Jul 04 2008 03:35 AM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	MichaelA	Thu Jul 03 2008 04:49 PM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	JustMe	Thu Jul 03 2008 03:01 PM
Surprisingly Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	CoconutCandy	Thu Jul 03 2008 02:56 PM
Re: Watching Systems in the Eastern Caribbean and Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Thu Jul 03 2008 08:27 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Thu Jul 03 2008 03:27 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Hugh	Thu Jul 03 2008 02:00 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Jul 02 2008 11:40 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Lee-Delray	Wed Jul 02 2008 09:09 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Rich B	Wed Jul 02 2008 08:49 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Wed Jul 02 2008 08:38 PM

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