There is a mid/upper-level low over south/southwest Texas. No surface reflection of any consequence currently exists, and upper level winds are prohibitively strong for tropical cyclone development over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level divergence aloft east of northern Mexico is helping to fan the flames of convection, particularly of daytime showers and thunderstorms, over the northwestern gulf. This activity is now waning with the loss of daytime heating.
For now, in the western ATL, about the only area to watch is the western Caribbean, with about one in two hundred odds of a tropical cyclone forming there within the next 48 hours. Some marked improvement in the upper-level winds to even marginally favorable and/or a significant surface low forming would need to occur before the western Gulf can be looked at for potential tropical cyclogeneis.
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Re: Western GOM today?
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