Bottom half of the Latest Discussion on Bertha. Models are having a rough time beyond 72 hours.
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008 (edited~danielw)
...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...300/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE. RATHER...IT LEAVES BERTHA BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AS A RESULT...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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