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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
Tue Jul 15 2008 04:33 PM

A little surprised not to see Bertha being upgraded to hurricane at 11. She's there, but recon isn't. The most recently published Dvorak print out of SAB is already ages old (15/1145 UTC 35.1N 63.0W T3.5/3.5) And CIMSS is still running automated Dvorak on her using the curved band method, when it probably should already be interpreting by the eye method, in addition to misplacing her actual center, so those estimates (2.5 currently (2.5!!!)) can be completely tossed out. Why NHC chose to rely on some high-res scatts that are also not up to date, and yet themselves can easily be used to argue for an advisory at or greater than 65 knots, to maintain her intensity at 60 knots, I'll never know... Betcha someone in there right now must be thinking hard whether or not to adjust this between now and 5PM, at least especially given Bertha's still relatively close proximity to Bermuda.

94L is looking better, to me. I'm still placing it a tiny bit southeast of where scott keeps placing the LLCC.. , but then again, here's yet another one where some recon wouldn't hurt. Current T numbers strongly argue for a hair-trigger upgrade to numbered TD, should just a tiny bit more organization.. particularly, organized convection, occur

Most recent T numbers for 94L from SAB:
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Low Off Georgia Coast	MikeC	Tue Jul 15 2008 04:33 PM
Re: Bertha, East of Jacksonville, and Two Caribbean Waves But No Real Development Expected	cieldumort	Thu Jul 17 2008 08:17 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	Old Sailor	Thu Jul 17 2008 08:05 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	Black Pearl	Thu Jul 17 2008 07:16 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	scottsvb	Thu Jul 17 2008 05:08 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 17 2008 04:57 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	allan	Thu Jul 17 2008 03:35 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	scottsvb	Thu Jul 17 2008 03:04 PM
Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf	WeatherNut	Thu Jul 17 2008 02:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	allan	Thu Jul 17 2008 01:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	cieldumort	Thu Jul 17 2008 06:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	scottsvb	Thu Jul 17 2008 06:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 17 2008 06:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Freezey	Thu Jul 17 2008 04:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Sophie	Thu Jul 17 2008 03:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	danielw	Thu Jul 17 2008 03:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	scottsvb	Thu Jul 17 2008 03:39 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	ltpat228	Thu Jul 17 2008 02:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	craigm	Thu Jul 17 2008 02:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Hugh	Thu Jul 17 2008 01:39 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	craigm	Thu Jul 17 2008 01:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 17 2008 12:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 16 2008 07:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	allan	Wed Jul 16 2008 06:51 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	scottsvb	Wed Jul 16 2008 06:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	Rich B	Wed Jul 16 2008 04:38 PM
Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?	cchsweatherman	Wed Jul 16 2008 04:08 PM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	metwannabe	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:44 PM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	doug	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:05 PM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	Ed in Va	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:46 PM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	weathernet	Wed Jul 16 2008 01:35 PM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	M.A.	Wed Jul 16 2008 12:26 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	Hurikid	Wed Jul 16 2008 11:51 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	danielw	Wed Jul 16 2008 04:12 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	cieldumort	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:53 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	shamrock	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:40 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:28 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	danielw	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:18 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	Genesis	Wed Jul 16 2008 03:03 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	shamrock	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:59 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	allan	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:52 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:49 AM
GOM...Close to Home	danielw	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:43 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	shamrock	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:41 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	Freezey	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:38 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	metwannabe	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:28 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	shamrock	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:27 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	Freezey	Wed Jul 16 2008 02:09 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	cieldumort	Wed Jul 16 2008 01:54 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	Hugh	Wed Jul 16 2008 12:36 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	cieldumort	Wed Jul 16 2008 12:17 AM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	doug	Tue Jul 15 2008 08:13 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	allan	Tue Jul 15 2008 07:01 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 06:41 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	doug	Tue Jul 15 2008 06:34 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 04:54 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2008 04:33 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:20 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	okihabu	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:12 PM
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf	doug	Tue Jul 15 2008 11:55 AM

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