TD3 did in fact slide to the east, and under the convection. Your eyes did not deceive you. I think this not only verifies NHC's indication of the system becoming better organized, but given the relaxed upper air and that the center is well parked under the CDO, even marginal conditions would seem to easily permit slow development. As indicated in the 11:00am advisory, recon may well determine later that we may finally have Cristobal.
As for GFDL not being so "bullish" on development of TD3, I wonder if this is in fact due to the relative size of the system. Seems to me that some models ( UK, European, etc ) do not pick up or forecast smaller systems as well. Also remember, though this was an easily trackable low which maintained its integrity from the Gulf, accross Florida, and east of S. Carolina, this was a small frontal low vorticity and not all models are as sensitive in picking up or developing these systems. My guess is that as TD3 develops and the mid level wind field develops, we will see some of the other models initialize it better, and thus their respective intensity forecasts come more in line with SHIPS. Final thought on TD3 for the moment, is that I beleive we may see intensity forecasts "bump up" beyond the current 45 knots. Given its consistantly improved structure, along with short term upper air forecast, I might think that the system may well approach hurricane strength as it passes just east of the North Carolina Cape area.
Interestingly, 94L ( ....the wave that could'nt...), continues to basically.....continue. Seems this wave just simply lacks the necessary organization to overcome each new wrinkle it encounters, whether that be inflow due to S. America, fast forward motion, a nearby weak upper low, etc. Even now as I write, there is a new bursting of convection seemingly over or near what may be some center of low or mid level vorticity. For the last couple of runs, GFDL seems to want to develop the system somewhat, and the GFS does attempt to deepen the system to at least a depression in the western Gulf. My guess here is that if this systems does not organize soon, than will be less likely to gain quite as much latitude, and perhaps may be no greater than one bad flood problem for Central America or Yucatan.
.....one additional thought on 94L, as I take a last look at it this a.m., for the first time, am starting to see what appears as a second center. Obviously, both are fairly weak. The primary low may well be under the current bursting to the south, however am now seeing what could be a mid level spin just south of the Western tip of Jaimaca. This is curious, in that the previous run of GFDL which attempts to develop 94L, seems to initialize it at this higher latitude. For now, I do not really buy it though, in part due to the limited convection around this point. Even if this should become a more dominant center on this wave, given its fast motion, I just don't see the necessary time for this to develop as such; at least not while in the Caribbean.
Edited by weathernet (Sat Jul 19 2008 12:05 PM)
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