Area of Interest - TS Dolly

Tropical Storm Dolly in the far western Caribbean Sea heading for the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Finding the predominant center of this system over the past few days is something akin to Mission Impossible because consolidation of the storm has been rather ragged at best. Tonight at 21/00Z it is still a difficult task.

A lower level circulation is evident close to but southwest of the NHC 00Z position near 19N 86W. This center is tracking almost due west with very litle convection near its location. A vigorous mid-level circulation is noted near 20.5N 85.5W at 00Z moving to the west northwest on a track that would take it to the north of Cozumel Island. This center probably has a better chance of becoming the consolidation point but keep in mind that the general movement around this point is to the west northwest. Two other higher level vorticies are noted in the deeper convection that is south of the western tip of Cuba - moving slowly northwest around the mid level center.

If the mid level center predominates and builds to the surface (it may already have done this) Dolly will be over the northern Yucatan for a shorter period of time. Future track adjustments seem likely as the tropical storm continues to develop.
ED

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