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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)

General Discussion >> The Tropics Today


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Dolly's Remnant Low Holds Together: Causing West Texas/Desert SW Flooding
      Sat Jul 26 2008 12:37 PM

Former Category 2 Hurricane Dolly, which made landfall on South Padre Island around mid-day Wednesday, along the coast of deep south Texas, has held on to its core circulation very well.

As of late Saturday morning, the surface circulation now appears just west of El Paso, Tx, and is traveling almost at stall speed, with very little, and perhaps erratic, motion. Remnants of her former eyewall are now just over El Paso, with very persistent tropical showers and thunderstorms within and to the east of the eyewall remnants/center of circulation.

A check of Weatherbug displays clear cyclonic flow at the surface, with maximum sustained winds in the greater El Paso area up to around 25MPH, with higher gusts. Also, local radar displays perfect cyclonic flow of the associated showers and thunderstorms, along with the eyewall remnants still very much noticable. So, you know that Dolly is not just any old patch of remnant TC moisture. In fact, Dolly is still acting very much like, if not exactly like, an inland Tropical Depression that has nearly stalled out, and is now wringing itself out.

Moisture from Dolly, further combined with a pre-established monsoonal regime in much of the area, has prompted Flash Flood Watches & Warnings over large portions of the southwest. This part of the country simply does not have the ability to soak up heavy precipitation, let alone heavy rain rates that then keep falling for extended periods of time. Flash flooding in the desert southwest is a common-enough occurrence, even without a decaying tropical depression sitting overhead... and being that new daily rainfall totals are almost a given this weekend, the risk of more widespread flash flooding is going up.

Relevant Links:
Current HPC TD Dolly Public Advisories

4PM CDT Update
After nearly getting stuck over El Paso, Dolly's remnants have fortunately resumed a northward motion, now estimated to be around 18MPH.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 26 2008 05:24 PM)

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* Dolly's Remnant Low Holds Together: Causing West Texas/Desert SW Flooding cieldumortModerator Sat Jul 26 2008 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Dolly's Remnant Low Holds Together: Causing West Texas/Desert SW Flooding cieldumortModerator   Mon Jul 28 2008 04:39 PM

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