CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Tropics are Hopping: Hernan now Hurricane, Kika Heads West
Fri Aug 08 2008 01:38 PM
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While I certainly agree with Mike, " ... there is very little to nothing going on in the tropics right now. It's likely there won't be anything to talk about until the end of next week ...", that applies only to the Atlantic Basin.
And while I realize (and am frequently reminded) that the *main* focus of CFHC *IS* the Atlantic Basin, I think most would agree that storms and tropical developments in other basins are worth keeping an eye on and can even be interesting.
And while the Atlantic is in 'snooze button mode' for the time being, the Eastern and Central Pacific are becoming increasingly active with a Hurricane, a Tropical Storm and a handful of 'Invests', several of which look to be very promising for cyclogenesis to occur.
Check out the Navy Research Lab Tropical Cyclone page, for those not yet familiar with the site. You can easily spend hours exploring this very cool site. (Historical data, too!)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Hernan fired off an impressive burst of very deep and sustained convection overnight, local basin time, and apparently became better aligned in the vertical, as shown on successive microwave passes, and is now sporting a nascent eye on visible imagery.
 Hernan's impressive eyewall is prominently portrayed in passive microwave imagery.
Hernan is now expected to strengthen further in the near-term, before then traversing several isotherms in quick succession after about 48 hours and steadily encountering cooler SST's and weakening, with his remnants steered WSW into the Central Pacific, as indicated best by the shallow BAM layer model.
Kika meanwhile, now passing due south of the Big Island of Hawaii as I write, is having a tough go of it. Marginal SST's and light but persistent easterly shear have essentially disrupted requisite convective processes and prevented Kika from strengthening much, if at all. Overnight convection, unlike as was the case with Hernan, was rather unimpressive.
Kika is expected to track steadily westward, steered by a strong deep-layer ridge far to it's north, extending through the entire depth of the atmosphere, keeping this small cyclone far from these islands, thankfully.
There's a few more interesting invests out there, one of which is expected to cross into the Central Pacific very soon, and may develop into a storm, as well.
So, while all's quiet on the Atlantic front, the Pacific is Sizzling. But then again, it *is* August, and the EastPac *is* the 2nd most active basin in the world, playing second fiddle only to the typhoons of the WestPac. It's expected to be active!
Quick note: I looks as if all this activity is *not* related to any eastward progression of the MJO pulse across the Pacific, as was speculated in a post somewhere earlier this week.
A quick read of the latest 'Expert Discussion' on the MJO web page indicates that the MJO has again gone 'Incoherent' (not recognizable by way of analysis) and appears to be a Non-contributing-factor to cyclogenesis in *any* basin.
Link to the "Expert Discussion" on the Madden Julian Oscillation becoming incoherent ...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf
That's not to say there won't be any cyclones; there most assuredly will be (and are!), with the Atlantic basin soon to follow suit to this flurry of activity in the Pacific.
Sorry to go *slightly* off topic, but it ties in well with current developments and thought it to be of general interest to everyone following along. More on Hernan and Kika (and perhaps a few new named storms as well) coming this weekend, time permitting.
- Aloha
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