I'll be kinda brief on this, but I have seen this year the models after 72hrs been off on strength of a system this year, especially the GFS. Tracks have done well, but time after time again we see a hurricane in 96-144hrs and it doesnt happen or its delayed. Eduardo was a exception but also home grown and the models probably had a better idea on something forming closer to home.
Until we get a TD, I wouldnt say or think how strong a system will be. After 72hrs module runs seem to change dramatically in strength a system might get, they might of shown a hurriane in 96 hrs but almost nothing 2 runs later.
Right now with 92L, it may never develop into more than a weak TS if at all due to dry air! Same with 93 L as dry air gets between the 2 systems. I think 92ls chance is better after 5 days in the S.E Bahamas., but dont believe the models strength after 72hrs.
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