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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Looking Around the Basin
      Tue Aug 12 2008 10:30 PM


The SE shear that had been impacting the broad circulation of 92L appears to have weakened considerably in the last 6 hours. The 10 to 15 kt shear vectors have reduce uniformly to around 5 kts.

There is a clear attempt at a "coring" of rotation, and there is even a small persistent cluster of deep convection near this perceived axis of rotation.

Some tropical models, such as the GFDL, are quite robust with intensity out in time. In fact, the 18z run ramps up 92L all the way to 121kts at 120 hours, in the Bahamas! This can't be an official call; however, I do not really see any big mitigators to development looking forward, as the TW (or depression) moves WNW.

As far as 93L goes, the water temperatures where this TW(s) is, are marginal actually... That combined with a touch of SAL contamination is probably why a clear and vigorous rotation is unable to find convection. It may just be a matter of time.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Aug 12 2008 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles cieldumort   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles weathernet   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles Robert   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin weathernet   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin flanewscameraman   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 14 2008 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 13 2008 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin stormchazer   Wed Aug 13 2008 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin LoisCane   Wed Aug 13 2008 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin doug   Wed Aug 13 2008 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin scottsvb   Wed Aug 13 2008 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin JoshuaK   Wed Aug 13 2008 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin scottsvb   Wed Aug 13 2008 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 13 2008 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin WeatherNut   Wed Aug 13 2008 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 13 2008 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin weathernet   Wed Aug 13 2008 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin craigm   Wed Aug 13 2008 08:14 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 13 2008 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin scottsvb   Wed Aug 13 2008 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin metwannabe   Tue Aug 12 2008 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 12 2008 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts Hugh   Tue Aug 12 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts LoisCane   Tue Aug 12 2008 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Robert   Tue Aug 12 2008 04:50 PM
. * * Re: RE: Recon West winds WF-Ron   Tue Aug 12 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts DrewC   Tue Aug 12 2008 03:29 PM
. * * RE: Recon West winds Robert   Tue Aug 12 2008 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts NewWatcher   Tue Aug 12 2008 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts WeatherNut   Tue Aug 12 2008 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 12 2008 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts JoshuaK   Tue Aug 12 2008 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 12 2008 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin cieldumort   Tue Aug 12 2008 12:44 AM
. * * Discussion Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 11 2008 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin LoisCane   Mon Aug 11 2008 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Freezey   Mon Aug 11 2008 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Beach   Mon Aug 11 2008 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin Beach   Mon Aug 11 2008 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin MAR32366   Mon Aug 11 2008 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin MichaelA   Mon Aug 11 2008 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin scottsvb   Mon Aug 11 2008 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin cchsweatherman   Mon Aug 11 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Looking Around the Basin danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 11 2008 12:45 PM

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