It seems odd to me that, even though shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished some with 92L, it otherwise certainly looks to have a clear circulation, it is trying to consolidate and gets its act together, that NHC has moved it from a high probability of development to a moderate probability.
I think if convection can continue to fire and sustains over the "center" we will have atleast a TD by morning if not a storm.
-------------------- Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)