cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles
Thu Aug 14 2008 03:40 AM
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The current mission into 92L is certainly shedding a good bit of light on things. There are some hints that the low could be right smack in the process of closing back off at the surface overnight tonight. Obviously, should it be able to do so, especially while also blowing up all of this deep convection pretty much right on top of the location of lowest pressure, a tropical depression could be forming fortuitously right before the mission's eyes.
Unlike prior nights, 92L is now traveling through a much less hostile environment: The ULL to its west-northwest continues to scoot at a seemingly faster clip than 92 is, and may be weakening. An upper-level anticyclone sitting atop the disturbance looks to be setting up shop, and coming along for the ride. Dust in the vicinity is in far less supply, and without the previous levels of shear to shoot bullets of this killer SAL into the mix, the dust plague out ahead of it looks to be greatly diminished as an impediment to further development.
At this time, judging from the recon data just in, buoy and ship reports, it appears that 92L is still represented by a fairly robust mid-level low, with a now only slightly offset, broad surface low of around 1007-1008mb. Winds are coming up, which is also something we hadn't seen much of previously. It certainly looks like the Leeward Islands might very well be in for tropical depression-like conditions, whether or not it makes the cut by the time it (probably) crosses over (at least a portion of) them.
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