Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Fay & Future Features
Sat Aug 23 2008 02:00 PM
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Tropical Storm Fay now inland over the Florida panhandle just north of Panama City and 75 miles east of Pensacola at 1PM CT moving to the west at 8mph with sustained winds of 45mph gusting to 55mph - mainly to the southeast of the center along the coast. Continued movement to the west, as a minimal Tropical Storm is expected through Monday morning. With a slow forward motion likely, heavy rain is probable in southwestern Georgia, the Florida panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana (see Clark's latest Met Blog).
From Clark on previous thread:
"Tropical Storm Fay, now located near Panama City, FL, is producing torrential rains across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend region this afternoon, with flood warnings up covering an estimated 400,000 people across the region. Rainfall rates of 4-6"/hr are common within its highly efficient rainfall bands, producing running storm total accumulations over 16" in Monticello, FL as of noon today. This activity will slowly slide westward with time, impacting Tallahassee and points further west. As it was in Jacksonville and Melbourne, this is a high impact dangerous flooding situation and travel is not recommended across the region. Stay tuned to your local NWS office, the NHC, and local emergency management agencies for all of the latest, including road closures and evacuations."
Latest NHC Warnings and Watches:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
Invest 94L has a low pressure center of 1008MB and was located near 11N 58W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph. The system is moving to the west at 20mph and a continued motion to the west northwest to northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Windshear in the northern Caribbean Sea is likely to decrease so this system has a good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 to 36 hours. Convection has been on a steady increase and residents in Trinidad/Tobago, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands should anticipate squally conditions over the next few days. The next name on the list is Gustav.
Invest 95L was located near 19.5N 49.5W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph, a low pressure of about 1012MB. This system was moving to the west northwest at 25mph and should continue to move to the west northwest for the next couple of days. Although convection has been increasing with this system, it will soon enter an area of strong southwesterly windshear so chances for additional development are rather slim.
Other active waves are noted near 6N 40W in the ITCZ and 13N 25W, and a large wave will exit the west African coast on Sunday. Plenty of systems to watch in the weeks ahead, however Fay remains our primary concern.
ED
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|7|2008|2|Wave 94L}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}}
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