MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Gustav Over Jamaica, Hanna Holding Weak
Thu Aug 28 2008 07:54 AM
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7:30PM
Tropical Storm Gustav has moved inland over Jamaica, and they are feeling strong tropical storm force winds there right now. (See Jamaica links below for more information)
After Jamaica, the Cayman Islands will need to prepare, and then perhaps western Cuba. Beyond that, the models are still not completely trustworthy, the entire large cone needs to be watching, which includes Northeastern Texas east toward the Western End of the Florida Panhandle. Unfortunately, the features are complex enough to not know much more until Gustav gets around Cuba. The confidence in the track beyond 3 days is very low.
Hanna has been fighting with an upper low level pressure most of the day, which has kept the system weak, Hanna is another long range system that will have the Bahamas and the Southeastern US watching well into next week.
The low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche (96L) has a shot at becoming a depression or storm before landfall, but it will run out of time quickly.
There are two other waves in the Atlantic, one east of Hanna, another off Africa, that are also worth watching. This is a very busy time in the tropics, unlike anything we have seen in the past 2 years.
8:45AM
Judging from reports and Best Track, it appears TD#8 has formed into Tropical Storm Hanna, the next NHC advisory at 11AM EDT should reflect this.
Original Update
Good morning.
Things are busy in the tropics, today, with Gustav and newly formed Tropical Depression 8.
Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the Atlantic from 95L northeast of the Leeward Islands, it's general motion is toward the west and northwest for the next few days, and may meander a bit, and after that is a bit open.
Chances of a US threat are fairly low right now, but gaining and definitely in territory that the Bahamas, Florida, and the southeast coast will want to watch. Most models have it moving generally west northwest, and then slowing down and perhaps moving a bit southwest, after which is anyone's guess. A Blocking high is what likely may force the system back southwest or west, or force it to meander.
There is a chance for two land falling systems to take the news away next week.
If TD#8 were to affect the US, it would be 8-10 days from now.
It will likely strengthen later today, and the next name up is Hannah.
So where will it really go, discuss that part and the models in the Lounge for TD#8
Gustav weakened a great deal last night with land interaction in Haiti, but has regained itself quite a bit, and moved erratically southwest on top of it. It will likely be a hurricane again by the next update around 11AM.
Tropical Storm Gustav has moved Southwest and may move "Around" Jamaica, Hurricane Warnings are now up for the island. Gustav has moved further south/west than expected. Still much too early to tell what impacts will be in the Gulf of Mexico and probably will remain that way until sometime later this weekend.
The Cayman Islands should begin to prepare as well, as Gustav may be fairly strong by the time it nears there.
Lounge for Gustav
More to come soon.
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|3|Hanna}}
NOTE ON 96L Images have been delayed in opening, the current 96L is in the Bay of Campeche (Southwest Gulf of Mexico)
{{StormLinks|96L|96|9|2008|1|96L}}
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