Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana

8:30PM EDT 31 August Update
Gustav now likely to make landfall in east central Louisiana as a major Catagory III hurricane. Last visisble light satellite imagery showed a significant convective bloom over and southwest of the eye and the recon aircraft reported a central pressure of 952MB. Sustained surface winds have likely increased to at least 120mph and since the forward motion of about 15mph to the northwest has not yet decreased, Gustav should make landfall as a firm Cat III storm. Wind gusts in higher structures within the eyewall at landfall could approach 150mph. The central core of the hurricane appears to be rebuilding. The primary feeder band of the hurricane reached New Orleans at 8PM with wind gusts to 47mph at the airport. Gustav should make landfall in the mid-morning hours on Monday.
ED

8:20AM EDT 31 August Update
Gustav Weakened a bit after crossing Cuba, but remained a Major Hurricane, and has a chance to recover strength today. The storm has picked up forward motion as is Currently Moving Northwest at 16mph which would put the storm at or near landfall tomorrow night around 8 or so CDT.

If you are in Coastal Louisiana or New Orleans now YOU SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING AT THIS PAGE and should be executing evacuation plans now.

Hurricane watches remain in effect from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Tropical storm watches also remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Ochlochonee River. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the western end of the Florida Keys, and tropical storm watches are in effect for the eastern keys. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered and are on-going in and around the New Orleans area. All persons in and around the watch area need to rush preparations to protect life and property, to completion.

11:15 pm Saturday Update

Hurricane Gustav now over the waters of the southeastern Gulf (23.1N/83.8W)

Hurricane watches remain in effect from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Tropical storm watches also remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Ochlochonee River. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the western end of the Florida Keys, and tropical storm watches are in effect for the eastern keys. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered and are on-going in and around the New Orleans area. All persons in and around the watch area need to rush preparations to protect life and property, to completion.

Gustav took a punch in the belly for his having passed over Cuba. As of 11pm, maximum sustained winds have decreased to 140mph, and the minimum central pressure has risen to 948mb. However, with weak to no shear and rich oceanic heat content along the expect track through the east-central Gulf, the forecast for strengthening to near Category 5 status unfortunately still exists, peaking around 155mph 24 hours from now. This may be conservative. Gustav's interaction with the enormous heat potential of the Loop Current has yet to occur. Re-intensification is already underway, as recent satellite images are showing cooling cloud tops amid the CDO region, and the eye beginning to reappear. The long range radar from Key West, Florida, also shows a very sharply defined eye.

Gustav is forecast to make landfall as a very powerful hurricane, most likely near the Mississippi Delta region, between 36 and 48 hours from now; although it is important to point out that absolute certainty regarding the landfall location still can not be made.

John (typhoon_tip)

5:00 pm Saturday Update

Hurricane watch has been issued from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Hurricanes conditions may develop anywhere in this watch area in 36 hours time. Preparations to secure safety and property should be well underway and completed prior to the expected arrival of very dangerous and powerful Hurricane Gustav. Evacuations in New Orleans and surrounding areas have already begun. A tropical storm watch has also been issued from Alabama/Florida border east to the Ochlockonee River.

Gustav continues to strengthen as it approaches western Cuba. As of the 5pm advisory, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph, placing Gustav a mere 5 mph shy of the Category 4/Category 5 threshold. Minimum pressure is currently 942mb.

The Tropical Prediction Center has maintained their intensity forecast, expecting the maximum sustained winds to reach as high as 140kts (160mph) during and shortly after Gustav tracks bodily across the famed Loop Current (a large eddy of particularly warm waters that also extends to greater depths than normal) in the southeastern Gulf. Currently, Gustav has responded to a weakness in the ridge over the northern Gulf and that is why were are seeing a discerned northwest motion. This is expected to continue until the point of landfall; where precisely that landfall takes place can not yet be pin-pointed, but a landfall in the northern Gulf is of higher confidence.

John (typhoon_tip)

1:30 pm Saturday Update
Gustav has continued to intensify today with peak winds now at 145 mph. Gustav is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and further strengthening is possible before it makes landfall in western Cuba this evening.

Original Update
Hurricane Gustav has become a category 3 storm, with 120MPH winds as of 5PM, and recon just recently reported a pressure drop to 955mb which indicates it has grown even stronger.

The forecast track has the 3 day cone with Gustav nearing the coast Tuesday morning in an area from Northeast Texas to Alabama, with Louisiana in the middle. Most of the model guidence takes it to Central Louisiana, and it may slow down forward motion significantly as it nears the coastline or crosses over the coast making extended winds/rain likely in the landfall area.

Those in those areas should pay attention to local media and officials and official weather statements from your area. Those in areas that take a while to evacuate along the Louisiana coastline should start so now. Areas in the expanded cone should continue to watch too, especially after Gustav gets north of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Hanna's center is away from most of the convection, but it's moving generally westward, the forecast keeps it gaining strength slowly, and eventually moving southwest (which is extremely rare for hurricanes and tropical storms in this area). Avila in the 5AM discussion even mentioned Hurricane Betsy (1965) as another storm that did something similar and how today's models would react to that. That said, there appears to be even more uncertainty in the future track than with Gustav.

Also in the eastern Atlantic is a tropical wave (97L) which has the potential to develop over the next few days, and is the first likely candidate this year for a long track system (tropical depression or higher).

Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps

Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Multiple webcams located at the Port of New Orleans
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter

Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!

Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav

Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana

Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna

Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}

{{radarlink|lix|New Orleans, LA Radar}}
{{radarlink|lch|Lake Charles, LA Radar}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|1|Gustav}}

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}

{{StormLinks|97L|97|9|2008|3|97L}}

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2008 09:01 PM)

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