Afternoon Update:
ULL has charged off to the west again and left behind most of the convection. Looks like a non-problem for the moment.
ED
Original Post:
A westward moving upper level low near 24N 69W at 26/12Z has gathered some convection around its center during the night. The system has moved west of an area of southwesterly shear and SSTs are above 28C so conditions in the area certainly are not hostile. The westerly motion has slowed down considerably over what it was a few days ago. The 300mb GFS moves the low across south Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Waves exiting Africa haven't look as impressive lately and upwelling has actually cooled down the SSTs just off the west coast of Africa. ENSO has pretty much stabilized into a neutral state as the weak La Nina has faded. Maybe a quiet time, but keep an eye on that ULL. Normally they don't do much, but this year has already seen an early exception (Ana).
Cheers,
ED
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