It would seem that there are suddenly quite a few disturbances and invests popping up all the way from the Western Pacific right on into the Atlantic Basin.
Granted, we are still very close to the peak of the season (Sept. 10th), so one should expect plenty of activity. Seasonal averages and climatology being what they are.
But, with the exception of IKE, almost two weeks ago, and the very recent HAGUPIT (see the 'Other Basins' forum for the interesting story of Hagupit's eyewall replacement cycle just prior to landfall as a severe Cat. 4 typhoon) there really hasn't been a heck of a lot of activity in ANY basin.
In fact, since this IS so close to the peak of 'hurricane season', it would appear that we've actually had a paucity of cyclones from what would normally be expected for this time of year. Some might even call it a sort of 'negative anomaly', a veritable mini-drought of storms these past few weeks, when it should be quite active.
Well, that's all suddenly changing in dramatic fashion. It would seem that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is 'gathering' strength and beginning to propogate, which may, at least in part, explain the recent flurry of invests and storms now forming.
A quick peek at the Climate Prediction Center's latest 'Expert Discussion' on the MJO phenomena, just out 2 days ago, sheds some insight into current tropical activity.
The first and last bulleted items are most revealing. From this 'expert summary', it would seem that most basins, with the possible exception of the far-western Pacific and the Indian Ocean basin, will likely see an *enhanced probability* of tropical cyclone formation over the next few weeks, at least.
We now have newly-formed 'Jangmi' SW of Guam, expected to go up to at least 120 Kts., and then drawing a bead on Hong Kong (again!). And there is even an invest (96C) south of the Hawaiian Islands, which some models are drawing up towards the Islands by Sunday or Monday time frame, and the GFS is also suggesting another tropical system, now taking shape along 130W, to also be drawn up towards the islands early next week.
I can only surmise these embryonic systems come to us complements of the current moderate MJO pulse " ... centered across the Pacific" but decidedly heading your way (Atlantic Basin) over the next few weeks. I think it quite likely there will be at least a half dozen storms forming over the next month or so. Hopefully, they won't all be US landfalls, like Dolly thru Ike. That was amazing!
Don't have a clue what the MJO phenomena is? Or why it's so relevent to enhancing convection and storminess over the worlds' oceans? Well don't dispair!
As a follow-on to this post, I will be adding some links to some great web resources. One that is especially excellent, a short flash tutorial, will get the total novice quickly up to speed and is sure to leave you with a much better understanding of this rather interesting phenomena, and also how the MJO relates to enhancing the likelihood of tropical storms forming.
Anyone care to chime in a little about the current MJO upswing in tropical activity?
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MJO Strengthening and On the Move = Cyclones
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