Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The Atlantic is quiet

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Milton) , Major: 43 (Milton) Florida - Any: 43 (Milton) Major: 43 (Milton)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2009 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Tropical Outlook For 2009
Sat Jan 24 2009 02:24 PM

Its time to start our annual assessment of anticipated tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season in the Atlantic basin. Last year 43 site users offered their guesstimates for 2008 tropical cyclone activity - a record high level of participation. The 2008 season ended with 16 named storms of which 8 were hurricanes and 5 of those were major hurricanes (Cat III or stronger) and Mr Corkdork800 hit the totals right on the nose - nice job! Cieldumort (16/8/4) and HanKFranK (15/8/5) were only one off of the total numbers while FtLaudBob (17/9/5), Storm Hobbiest (16/7/4) and Hootie Hoo (15/8/4) were two off on the total numbers - all excellent forecasts! CSU and TSR were also at -2; both with forecasts of 15/8/4.

For the upcoming 2009 season, CSU and TSR are again equal in their outlooks - both are again forecasting an active season of 15/8/4 - and having no real disagreement with their logic, my forecast is similar at 14/8/4. With a weakening La Nina next spring expected to become ENSO neutral during the 2009 season, it looks like activity should remain above average. While the far western Atlantic is expected to be slightly cooler than normal, it is worth noting that the western Atlantic was also slightly cooler than normal during the 2008 season.

Initial best analog seasons appear to be 1990 and 2001 for SSTs and 1996 for pattern. I'll update this thread again in early April, but we'll keep it open until the 2009 season starts on June 1st. Here is your chance to take your own guess at the numbers for 2009. You can update them as you wish until the season starts and remember that forecast rational is not required, but please limit your responses to your actual forecasts and rationale (if any) - it makes it easier at the end of the season to compile the results and see who did well.
Cheers,
ED

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Outlook For 2009	Ed Dunham	Sat Jan 24 2009 02:24 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	cieldumort	Sun May 31 2009 06:34 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	madmumbler	Fri May 22 2009 07:59 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Valandil	Wed Apr 29 2009 04:11 AM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Doombot!	Sat Apr 25 2009 09:48 AM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	scottsvb1	Wed Apr 29 2009 03:33 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Cat 5orBust	Wed Apr 29 2009 09:03 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Storm Hunter	Tue May 05 2009 10:47 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	JAH	Mon Apr 27 2009 04:24 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Ed Dunham	Sun Apr 05 2009 04:05 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Ed Dunham	Fri May 29 2009 09:43 AM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 01 2009 12:40 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Wingman51	Fri May 29 2009 10:22 AM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	MikeC	Fri May 29 2009 07:36 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Ed Dunham	Tue Apr 07 2009 11:24 AM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	MichaelA	Sat Apr 18 2009 08:51 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Hurricane29	Mon Apr 06 2009 07:20 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Bloodstar	Thu Mar 26 2009 05:54 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Hurricane29	Mon Mar 30 2009 10:33 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	jessiej	Sat Mar 21 2009 10:09 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	Storm Cooper	Thu Mar 05 2009 01:41 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jan 30 2009 03:35 PM
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009	GlenJohnson	Mon Feb 02 2009 01:31 PM

Extra information

0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 23595

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center