MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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97L Gone, Nothing Likely to Develop in the Tropics
Fri Jul 17 2009 01:08 PM
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8AM Update 22 July 2009
It is a mess around the Bahamas right now, but 97L is pretty much gone at this point. If a low forms it'll probably be a bit north and to the east of the Bahamas, and even then I still don't think anything tropical will develop.
If a (non-tropical) low does form it will be embedded with the front and probably head rapidly to the north and northeast away from land.
This year it's likely the places to watch will be more the "home-grown" systems, like in the Bahamas, Gulf, or Western Caribbean rather than the African waves in general. Which is why it is a good idea to watch systems like this closely for the unexpected later this season.
9:30AM Update 21 July 2009
97L has entered the Caribbean and still seems unlikely to develop, another area over the Bahamas has flared up this morning, and due to the proximity to Florida should be watched to see if this persists through the day and evening. The Bahamas system should not reach Florida regardless, and should move northward later and possibly be offshore close to North Carolina in a few days, and run up toward New England.
Neither are expected to develop.
2004 was the last year the season "started" so late with a name storm. Alex in 2004 didn't form into a named system until august 1st. It was not too much later that we had the 4 storms crossing Florida that year. Although I doubt we'll see anything close to that this year.
2000 also started in August, and of course Andrew in 1992 did not get named until August 17th.
11:15PM Update 19 July 2009
The Window for development on this wave has all but closed after a persistent convective burst earlier today. Chances of development are dropping like a rock, and it's beginning to enter into an area of heavier shear.
12:43AM Update 19 July 2009
The eastern wave (97L) has persisted a bit more than anticipated. There is another window approaching today or tomorrow where it could enter into conditions allowing it to form into a depression. So it's not quite over there. Shear is expected to increase over the next few days which would likely preclude it from gaining much strength if it did.
It has a decent shot tonight or tomorrow (20-40% roughly) to get to a depression by tomorrow, but conditions in the future make it forming into anything more unlikely.
Watch how well or well not it holds the current look into the evening, and any dry air intrusions.
8:45AM Update 19 July 2009
The wave in the Central Atlantic (97L) and another wave near the eastern Caribbean both will likely not develop. Shear approaching the western system will destroy it before it gets a chance, and the other one (97L) is not holding on. It wasn't expected that either would develop, and now it looks like the window for those have passed.
Therefore the continued quiet tropics continues. Thankfully it appears we'll get through July without a named system. And perhaps some into August as well.
Original Update
A wave in the Central to Eastern Atlantic, now designated 97L is being tracked.
It still has a low chance of forming within the next two days, but it is something to watch for this, so far, quiet month.
Early model plots are usually not worth much, but the general trend is toward the west. The eastern Caribbean islands will want to keep checking in on this over the next few days.
As the wave moves westward it will encounter some dry air that will continue to keep it weak, but models are projecting the trough (TUTT) out ahead of it to move north, lessening the shear in the future for a little bit. However, the system still lacks a lot of convection and has a relatively low chance of development. It is very likely that it will not develop.
You can find more information about this wave at the NRL page.
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, PR Radar}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|2|2009|1|98L}}
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